Publications
Evidence with a purpose.
Reports, policy briefs, press releases, books, and public commentary in one searchable archive.
The hidden cost of fire: economic and health impacts of forest and land fires in Indonesia 2026
CELIOS has released its latest research on the economic and health costs of forest and land fires (Karhutla) in Indonesia throughout January–August 2026. ➖ The total economic and health costs of forest and land fires in Indonesia during January–August 2026 are estimated at Rp39.29–123.1 trillion. The upper-end estimate of Rp123.1 trillion is equivalent to 49.1% of Central Kalimantan’s projected regional GDP in 2026. This estimate does not yet account for a scenario in which forest and land fire
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Meals (not) nutritious (not) free
When (Not) Nutritious (Not) Free Meals The Free Nutritious Meals Program (MBG) has been touted as a flagship program of the Prabowo-Gibran administration. The government, through Bappenas, has identified 4 main objectives for MBG. These include meeting the nutritional needs of vulnerable groups. The program is also intended to improve the quality of education. MBG is expected to stimulate local economies. The program is also claimed to be capable of creating jobs. President Prabowo Subianto has repeatedly said that MBG is the provi…
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Economic losses from the Sumatra flood disaster
Celios Study Findings: Economic Losses from the Sumatra Flood Disaster 🗣️The ecological disaster in Sumatra in November 2025 is projected to have caused economic losses of Rp68.67 trillion. This figure includes damage to residents’ homes, loss of household income, damage to road and bridge infrastructure, and lost agricultural production from farmland inundated by floods and landslides. 🗣️Specifically, Aceh Province is projected to have suffered losses of Rp2.2 trillion. North Sumatra is projected
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Survey: Prabowo–Gibran’s 1-Year Performance Report Card
One Year of Prabowo–Gibran: A Failing Grade from the Public CELIOS has released the results of its One-Year Performance Evaluation of the Prabowo–Gibran Government, assessing program achievements, leadership, budget governance, policy communication, and law enforcement. The evaluation was conducted through a panel survey of 120 journalists from 60 national media outlets and a public survey of 1,338 respondents across Indonesia. The results show failing grades in nearly every sector. Prabowo Subianto scored 3 out of 10, Gibran
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The economic impact of the Merah Putih Cooperative
The Indonesian government has officially launched the Merah Putih Village Cooperative, promising it would drive rural economic development. Yet from its design to its launch, Kopdes MP has sparked debate: can it truly empower villages, or will it instead add to the fiscal burden? A CELIOS report titled *The Economic Impact of the Merah Putih Cooperative* finds that most cooperatives are still underperforming; 59.42% report annual revenue below IDR 300 million. The program also gives rise to
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Expert testimony by CELIOS in the formal review process of Law Number 1 of 2025 on State-Owned Enterprises, which regulates the Sovereign Wealth Fund Danantara
On July 16, 2025, CELIOS was officially invited by the Constitutional Court to provide expert testimony at the judicial review hearing of Law No. 1 of 2025 on the Third Amendment to the Law on State-Owned Enterprises. Representing CELIOS, Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara presented an economic perspective that questioned the transparency of the legislative process and highlighted the systemic risks arising from the law’s implementation. In his testimony, Bhima stressed
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Tax justice awaits Constitutional Court ruling, expert calls for VAT cut to boost economy
Jakarta, July 9, 2025 — The Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) was formally invited to present expert testimony at the Constitutional Court hearing on the judicial review of Law No. 7 of 2021 on Value-Added Tax (VAT). CELIOS was represented by Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, Economist and Executive Director, and Media Wahyudi Askar, Director of Public Policy. The hearing focused on the implications of Articles 4 and 7 of the Law on the Harmonization of Tax Regulations (UU HPP), particularly regarding the policy
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Merah-Putih Village Cooperatives: a study on implementation, reform, and policy alternatives
The Merah Putih Village Cooperative (Kopdes MP) program was rolled out under the banner of village empowerment and the promise of strengthening village economies. Yet, this study uncovers another side of the program: potential bureaucratic traps, debt burdens, shrinking fiscal space for villages, and hidden political interests. Based on primary data from multiple regions, the majority of village officials reject the Kopdes MP financing scheme, express concern about corruption, and detect risks of social conflict and electoral political mobilization
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Key stakeholders’ perspectives on job transformation in Indonesia’s public and private sectors
Technological transformations such as automation, robotics, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms have changed how people work and sparked debate about the future of work (The Future of Work). These changes bring both opportunities and risks—from growing demand for a workforce equipped with digital skills to the potential replacement of manual and administrative jobs by machines. In Indonesia, this challenge is becoming increasingly urgent because the current workforce’s capacity is not yet fully…
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Assessing the economic losses of delaying the appointment of civil servant candidates
The nine-month delay in the appointment of 250,407 Civil Servant Candidates (CPNS)—originally scheduled for March 2025 and now pushed back to October 2025 or even March 2026—has created economic uncertainty and widespread financial losses. The delay was driven by shifting priorities under the Prabowo administration, budget efficiency measures amounting to IDR306 trillion, and deficit pressures stemming from debt and previous infrastructure spending. The economic impact is substantial: IDR6.76 trillion has been lost in potential income
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100-day report of the Prabowo-Gibran Cabinet: Performance, challenges, and expectations
The Prabowo-Gibran administration has officially completed its first 100 days in office. CELIOS conducted a cabinet performance evaluation using expert judgment, involving 95 journalists from 44 reputable media outlets. The study found that President Prabowo received a score of 5 out of 10, while Vice President Gibran scored just 3 out of 10. Overall, performance was considered inadequate, with political promises only partially fulfilled and budget management considered poor by more than half of respondents. Some...
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Valuation of restorative economic impact: a pathway to overcoming Indonesia's economic stalemate
The CELIOS report titled “Calculating the Impact of a Restorative Economy: A Way Out of the Economic Stalemate” highlights the potential of a restorative economy to increase Indonesia’s economic output tenfold over the next 25 years, from Rp203.26 trillion to Rp2,208.7 trillion. A restorative economy, which combines ecosystem restoration with inclusive growth, focuses on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, which support more than 85% of Indonesia’s population. The study finds that an increase of 1
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