Publications
Evidence with a purpose.
Reports, policy briefs, press releases, books, and public commentary in one searchable archive.
Budget cuts for fiscal justice and people's welfare
CELIOS has released its latest report highlighting a budget efficiency strategy worth IDR 306.7 trillion. If implemented properly, this reallocation could expand social protection programs and improve public welfare. However, CELIOS warns that if the budget is concentrated solely on the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program under a universal coverage scheme, the risk of a heavy fiscal burden is unavoidable. As an alternative, CELIOS recommends a more efficient targeted approach, where
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Mandatory TPL vehicle insurance: A solution or a new burden for the public?
CELIOS has just released its latest report on the mandatory Third Party Liability (TPL) motor vehicle insurance policy. The study finds potential negative impacts on the national economy and the public, especially lower- and middle-income groups. If implemented, the policy risks reducing public income by up to IDR 20.7 trillion, lowering GDP by IDR 21 trillion, and reducing employment by 3.4 million people. Small businesses, such as those in the culinary sector, are also projected to
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100-day report of the Prabowo-Gibran Cabinet: Performance, challenges, and expectations
The Prabowo-Gibran administration has officially completed its first 100 days in office. CELIOS conducted a cabinet performance evaluation using expert judgment, involving 95 journalists from 44 reputable media outlets. The study found that President Prabowo received a score of 5 out of 10, while Vice President Gibran scored just 3 out of 10. Overall, performance was considered inadequate, with political promises only partially fulfilled and budget management considered poor by more than half of respondents. Some...
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Nexus of ambition, value addition, and governance in bauxite and copper downstreaming in Indonesia
After the nickel era, the government is now focusing on copper and bauxite downstreaming as strategic commodities for the battery ecosystem and energy transition. In its latest report, CELIOS underscores the importance of policy consistency, particularly regarding the plan to stop raw ore exports in 2025. The prospect of reopening permits for concentrate exports must not weaken the direction of downstreaming. Although smelter construction faces challenges, assessments of incidents such as the fire in Gresik must not
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Who is hungry? Who is full?: Risk mitigation in the Free Nutritious Meal Program
The Prabowo-Gibran administration has allocated IDR 71 trillion to implement the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) Program in 2025. As one of its political promises, the program is certain to be implemented. However, a critical question arises: will its implementation and management truly be effective and sustainable? This report examines the potential risks of the MBG Program, from uneven distribution and questionable food quality to budget inefficiencies
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PSN eroding special autonomy and the rights of Indigenous Papuans: Land grabbing in the name of food and energy self-sufficiency
The National Strategic Project (PSN) for the Merauke Food and Energy Development Area in South Papua has raised serious concerns about agrarian governance. A CELIOS report titled “PSN Eroding Special Autonomy and the Rights of Indigenous Papuans” reveals that regional expansion through revisions to the Papua Special Autonomy Law has facilitated land grabbing from Indigenous communities as a result of a deliberate legal vacuum in spatial planning. “This shows that regional expansion through revisions to the Special Autonomy Law…
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Indonesia digital economy outlook 2025
Rapid digital transformation has reshaped Indonesia’s economic landscape, creating new business models, job opportunities, and room for innovation. The CELIOS study “Indonesia Digital Economy Outlook 2025” provides projections for the development of the digital economy while highlighting key challenges. Nailul Huda, CELIOS Director of Economics, says, “Unfortunately, in 2025, the e-commerce sector is projected to grow by only 0.5% to IDR 471 trillion due to declining purchasing power and the potential increase in
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The green ambition trap for forests: Japan's energy transition and the harmful illegal biomass exports to Indonesia
Indonesia is beginning to look to wood biomass as one alternative in the energy transition, legitimized through the Energy Plantation (HTE) scheme under Minister of Environment and Forestry Regulation No. 62 of 2021 on diversifying the functions of forest areas to support national energy security. Wood biomass in the form of wood pellets and wood chips is being promoted for co-firing with coal at power plants and touted as a way to reduce dependence on fossil energy. However, a CELIOS study
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Vanishing forests, soaring emissions: The Merauke Food Estate accelerates the climate crisis
Amid global calls to reduce emissions, Indonesia could instead double its emissions simply by proceeding with the Merauke food estate megaproject. Clearing 2 million hectares of forest in Merauke could generate an additional 782.45 million tons of CO₂ in carbon emissions, equivalent to a carbon loss of IDR 47.73 trillion. As a result of the Merauke food estate project, Indonesia may fall around 5 to 10 years behind its Net Zero Emission target for
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Debt swap scheme can support the energy transition in the Prabowo era
President Prabowo’s commitment at the G20 Summit in Brazil to end dependence on coal-fired power plants over the next 15 years needs to be acted on immediately. The estimated cost of retiring coal-fired power plants through 2050 reaches IDR 444 trillion, while the government’s fiscal space is narrowing as interest and debt payments next year are expected to absorb 45% of the state budget. In this context, CELIOS is offering an innovative solution in the form of a debt swap scheme to enable coal-fired power plant retirement to be
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12% VAT: a severe blow to the finances of Gen Z and the lower-middle class
The increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 12% starting January 1, 2025, could have a significant impact on the public. Although stipulated in Law No. 7 of 2021 on the Harmonization of Tax Regulations (HPP), the government actually has the flexibility to set VAT rates between 5–15%. This policy comes amid weakening household economic conditions, with consumption growth of just 4.91% (y-o-y) in Q3 2024 and -0.48% (q-to-q), and deflation for five consecutive
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Valuation of restorative economic impact: a pathway to overcoming Indonesia's economic stalemate
The CELIOS report titled “Calculating the Impact of a Restorative Economy: A Way Out of the Economic Stalemate” highlights the potential of a restorative economy to increase Indonesia’s economic output tenfold over the next 25 years, from Rp203.26 trillion to Rp2,208.7 trillion. A restorative economy, which combines ecosystem restoration with inclusive growth, focuses on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, which support more than 85% of Indonesia’s population. The study finds that an increase of 1
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