Publications
Evidence with a purpose.
Reports, policy briefs, press releases, books, and public commentary in one searchable archive.
Key stakeholders’ perspectives on job transformation in Indonesia’s public and private sectors
Technological transformations such as automation, robotics, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms have changed how people work and sparked debate about the future of work (The Future of Work). These changes bring both opportunities and risks—from growing demand for a workforce equipped with digital skills to the potential replacement of manual and administrative jobs by machines. In Indonesia, this challenge is becoming increasingly urgent because the current workforce’s capacity is not yet fully…
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Assessing the economic losses of delaying the appointment of civil servant candidates
The nine-month delay in the appointment of 250,407 Civil Servant Candidates (CPNS)—originally scheduled for March 2025 and now pushed back to October 2025 or even March 2026—has created economic uncertainty and widespread financial losses. The delay was driven by shifting priorities under the Prabowo administration, budget efficiency measures amounting to IDR306 trillion, and deficit pressures stemming from debt and previous infrastructure spending. The economic impact is substantial: IDR6.76 trillion has been lost in potential income
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100-day report of the Prabowo-Gibran Cabinet: Performance, challenges, and expectations
The Prabowo-Gibran administration has officially completed its first 100 days in office. CELIOS conducted a cabinet performance evaluation using expert judgment, involving 95 journalists from 44 reputable media outlets. The study found that President Prabowo received a score of 5 out of 10, while Vice President Gibran scored just 3 out of 10. Overall, performance was considered inadequate, with political promises only partially fulfilled and budget management considered poor by more than half of respondents. Some...
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Valuation of restorative economic impact: a pathway to overcoming Indonesia's economic stalemate
The CELIOS report titled “Calculating the Impact of a Restorative Economy: A Way Out of the Economic Stalemate” highlights the potential of a restorative economy to increase Indonesia’s economic output tenfold over the next 25 years, from Rp203.26 trillion to Rp2,208.7 trillion. A restorative economy, which combines ecosystem restoration with inclusive growth, focuses on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, which support more than 85% of Indonesia’s population. The study finds that an increase of 1
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Free Nutritious Meals: economic impacts and the consequences of the national budget deficit
The Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program is a priority of the Prabowo-Gibran administration, with a target of reaching 82 million beneficiaries, including schoolchildren, toddlers, and pregnant women. However, CELIOS warns that allocating IDR 71 trillion from the education budget to MBG could strain state finances and narrow fiscal space for other priority programs. Nailul Huda, CELIOS Director of Economics, stressed, “If the MBG program uses mandatory education spending, the quality of national education n
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Palm oil land moratorium: a positive impulse for Indonesia's economy
Indonesia, as the world’s largest palm oil producer with plantations spanning 16.8 million hectares, faces a dilemma between industrial expansion and environmental sustainability. Although palm oil exports contributed USD 37.76 billion in 2022 and USD 29.54 billion in 2023, the biodiesel development plan from B40 to B50 initiated by President Prabowo Subianto’s administration requires further palm oil land expansion, raising concerns about deforestation and the loss of food-producing land. The Palm Oil Moratorium under Presidential Instruction No. 8 of
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Scenario of the 2025 minimum wage increase and its impact on the national economy
Issues surrounding the formulation of the Minimum Wage following the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Job Creation Law have sparked speculation about the size of the 2025 wage increase. Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, emphasized, “In the past 10 years, the government has never used the minimum wage as a counter-cyclical policy. Yet a better minimum wage would boost household consumption and benefit businesses as well as overall economic growth.” CELIOS simulations show that an increase in the minimum wage
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CELIOS book: it’s time for restorative economics
This book originated from a document prepared to spark public discourse. Written by a group of independent authors specializing in economic, social, and environmental issues, the document took shape at a civil society organization meeting in Yogyakarta in August 2023. Its goal was clear: to involve more actors—including politicians, legislators, and regional leaders—in determining a development path that is not simply business-as-usual, given the existential challenges humanity faces today.
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Indonesia inequality report 2024: private jets for the rich, bicycles for the poor
A recent CELIOS study titled “Indonesia Inequality Report 2024: Private Jets for the Rich, Bicycles for the Poor” finds that inequality in Indonesia has reached a point where the wealth of the country’s 50 richest people is equal to that of 50 million Indonesians. Within the next six years, Indonesia will have its first quadrillionaire in history. At the same time, it will take 133 years to eradicate poverty in Indonesia. In addition to the finding of a
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A new economic paradigm: fiscal support for a restorative economy
Jakarta, July 2024— CELIOS released a report on the fiscal needs for implementing restorative economy initiatives in Indonesia. The study emphasizes the need for substantial government investment to support environmental recovery and social justice. The report “The New Economic Paradigm: Fiscal Support for a Restorative Economy” estimates that Indonesia will need Rp892.15 trillion by 2045 to effectively implement restorative strategies. The report identifies
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TAPERA for Wh(o)at? Analyzing the pros and cons of the People's Housing Savings Program
The People’s Housing Savings (Tapera) issue came to the fore after the issuance of Government Regulation No. 21 of 2024, which requires workers earning above the regional minimum wage to contribute 2.5% of their salary each month. In its Policy Brief “TAPERA for Wh(o)at? Analyzing the Pros and Cons of the People's Housing Savings Program,” CELIOS highlights the policy’s economic impact. CELIOS Director of Digital Economy Nailul Huda said, “The Tapera policy causes GDP to decline by IDR 1.21 trillion, business profits to fall by IDR 1.03 trillion, and
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CELIOS x WALHI: geothermal energy: economic and environmental impacts
Jakarta, March 5, 2024 – The development of Geothermal Power Plants (PLTP) in Indonesia, although promoted as part of the energy transition, has social and economic impacts on local communities. Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, emphasized, “Capital-intensive geothermal projects tend not to generate significant multiplier effects for local economies. On the contrary, local communities often view geothermal development as an obstacle to productivity in agriculture and
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